Meta Description:
Crude Oil Price Prediction june 2025 are forecasted to remain between $60–$70 in 2025, influenced by global supply, OPEC+ decisions, and Middle East tensions. Analysts expect Brent to average $65–$75 unless major disruptions occur. Discover expert predictions and key drivers shaping the oil market through 2026
1. 📈 Current Prices & Forecast Baseline
- WTI is trading at around $70–71/barrel today.
- Brent crude sits near $74/barrel (litefinance.org, iea.org).
Analysts generally expect prices to stabilize in the low-to-mid $60s for 2025, barring major disruptions.
2. 📊 Analyst Forecasts
JPMorgan
- Oil prices projected in the low-to-mid $60s for 2025 and around $60 in 2026 (reuters.com).
- If the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, Brent could spike to $120–$130 (businessinsider.com).
Goldman Sachs
- Estimates for a Strait of Hormuz disruption:
- Temporary spike to $110/barrel, then settle around $95 by Q4 2025 (reuters.com).
- Normal scenario: Brent in $60–80 range, depending on global demand and supply balances (reuters.com).
EIA
- EIA forecasts Brent to fall to $61 by end of 2025, averaging $59 in 2026, driven by rising global inventories (eia.gov).
- WTI average seen near $62 in 2025, and slipping slightly in 2026 (litefinance.org).
BMI / Bloomberg Consensus
- BMI: Brent average of $68 in 2025, rising to $71 in 2026, and then plateauing near $70–$75 through 2029 (rigzone.com).
- Bloomberg consensus aligns: $73 average 2025, $71 in 2026 .
3. 🚦 Key Price Drivers
A. Geopolitical Risk
- Middle East tensions—especially around the Strait of Hormuz—are the primary catalyst for price volatility (businessinsider.com).
- Analysts estimate a 21–52% probability of disruption this year (businessinsider.com).
B. Production Trends
- OPEC+ is unwinding voluntary cuts, adding ~2.2 mb/d by September 2026, boosting supply (marketwatch.com).
- U.S. production remains high (~13.5 mb/d), with slight declines expected to 13.3 mb/d through Q4 2026 (eia.gov).
C. Demand Outlook
- Global demand growth is modest (~720 kb/d in 2025), trailing supply—leading to inventory builds (iea.org).
- Growth is concentrated in non-OECD, while China and the U.S. show mixed momentum .
4. 📉 Scenario Analysis
Base Case (No Major Disruption)
- Brent: $60–70/barrel
- WTI: $55–65/barrel
Forecast aligns with EIA and JPMorgan projections (reuters.com, wsj.com).
Geopolitical Shock
- Strait disruption: Prices could go to $110–130/barrel temporarily (washingtonpost.com).
Demand Boom or OPEC+ Cut
- If demand surprises or OPEC+ reverses output increases, Brent could stabilize near $70–80 (marketwatch.com).
5. 🎯 Market Implications
- Traders: Maintain short-term protection for upside; base trades in mid-$60s.
- Energy firms: Assume mid-$60s long-term pricing; monitor production constraints.
- Consumers: Expect stable or lower gas prices unless large supply disruption occurs.
6. 🧭 Final Summary
- Short-term: Geo-risk and headlines may push prices higher temporarily.
- Medium-term: Fundamentals point to low-to-mid $60s for oil prices through 2025–26.
- Long-term: Unless disrupted, sentiment favors tapering supply and demand balance.
Bottom line: Expect a range-bound market with Volatility triggers around geopolitical events. The base case continues to center around $60–70/barrel Brent.
Let me know if you’d like supply-demand charts, refinery margin insights, or implications for alternative energy development.